epidemic. noun
- an outbreak of illness that spreads rapidly and impacts many people on the identical time : an outbreak of epidemic illness
- an outbreak or product of sudden speedy unfold, development, or improvement
The opioid epidemic is one which has impression numerous People. Knowledge from 2019 exhibits that there have been over 15,500 deaths in 2019 because of opioids. Many epidemics are contagious in nature in that they unfold from one particular person to a different. May any such contagious illness mannequin be utilized to the opioid epidemic as properly?
In keeping with an NBER paper by Adamopoulou et al. (2024) the reply is ‘sure’. When an individual has a pal that makes use of opioids, that particular person is more likely to make use of opioids.
Utilizing knowledge from the Nationwide Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Well being (Add Well being), adults aged 25-34 and their highschool greatest buddies are targeted on. An instrumental variable method is employed to estimate peer results in opioid misuse. Extreme accidents within the earlier yr are used as an instrument for opioid misuse to be able to estimate the causal impression of somebody misusing opioids on the likelihood that their greatest buddies additionally misuse. The estimated peer results are vital: Having a greatest pal with a reported severe damage within the earlier yr will increase the likelihood of personal opioid misuse by round 7 proportion factors in a inhabitants the place 17 p.c ever misuses opioids. The impact is pushed by people with out a school diploma and those that stay in the identical county as their greatest buddies.
The complete working paper is right here. Hat tip to Marginal Revolution.
