Famend crypto asset hedge fund supervisor Charles Edwards has made a daring prediction relating to the longer term worth of Bitcoin. Edwards, founding father of Capriole Investments, shared his insights through X (previously Twitter), outlining a compelling case for Bitcoin’s potential to achieve $280,000 within the coming yr.
In his assertion, Edwards referenced historic information and several other key elements that might drive Bitcoin’s worth to new heights. He started by evaluating Bitcoin’s efficiency after the 2020 halving occasion, stating, “If Bitcoin’s submit halving returns are the identical as 2020, we’re taking a look at $280K Bitcoin subsequent yr.”
Bitcoin Worth Might High $300,000 Subsequent Yr
Because the chart by Edwards reveals, the third bull run in 2020 was somewhat subdued compared to the earlier ones. The primary bull market (halving cycle) in 2012 noticed Bitcoin worth peak at $1132, marking a dramatic enhance of 8,996% over 11 months (335 days). The second bull run in 2016 led to December 2017 when the worth reached roughly $20,000, marking a 2,089% enhance over 17 months (518 days).
Edwards acknowledged that some would possibly argue that earnings diminish with every cycle. Nonetheless, he made a counterpoint that 2020’s efficiency was pinned down because of major elements. First, Edwards attributed the lackluster efficiency of the 2020 bull market to China’s choice to ban Bitcoin mining, which led to a 50% discount in hash price and had a stifling impact on Bitcoin.
Second, he highlighted the aggressive tightening measures taken by the Federal Reserve, which negatively impacted Bitcoin’s efficiency throughout that interval, stating, “2020 was the worst Bitcoin bull market in historical past. I consider total efficiency was pinned down because of the -50% destruction of mining community by China and essentially the most aggressive Fed tightening cycle in historical past.”
Nonetheless, Edwards expressed optimism concerning the future, pointing to a contrasting financial panorama in 2024. He acknowledged, “Actually, 2024 marks the polar reverse to 2021. QE has resumed and the Fed has began easing, with Fed chair Powell anticipating 3 cuts this yr. A weaker greenback = a stronger Bitcoin.”
He additionally in contrast the upcoming launch of Bitcoin ETFs in January to a “second halving,” highlighting the potential market influence, saying, “Additional, I take into account the January Bitcoin ETF launches as highly effective as a ‘second halving’.”
Drawing parallels to the gold market, Edwards emphasised that Bitcoin’s present market cap of round $800 billion is considerably smaller than gold’s market cap when the GLD ETF launched in 2004.
He famous that gold skilled a parabolic rise of over 300% in simply seven years following the launch of the ETF, stating, “With a market cap of round $3.3T, Gold commenced a parabolic rise of over 300% to $13T in below 7 years. Bitcoin’s market cap right now is simply over $800B. Smaller property are typically able to experiencing bigger upside returns.”
Moreover, Edwards underscored the speedy progress of Bitcoin, asserting that it’s at present outpacing the adoption price of the Web, saying, “Bitcoin is at present rising sooner than the Web.”
The hedge fund supervisor concluded by summarizing his prediction, stating:
A 500% return over the 18 months following the halving wouldn’t be uncommon for Bitcoin traditionally. An extra 300% return over the following 2-5 years from the ETFs alone could be a conservative assumption. If you drill it right down to the 2 most necessary elements for Bitcoin this cycle, and add them collectively, it’s straightforward to reach at a conservative Bitcoin worth of $300K within the subsequent couple of years.
At press time, BTC traded at $43,134.
Featured picture from YouTube / Blockworks, chart from TradingView.com
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